Et maintenant, le deluge

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has announced that President Hosni Mubarak has resigned. There is wild celebration in Tahrir square in Cairo, where demonstrating crowds have gathered for more than two weeks.

It is unclear who is in control of Egypt right now. Presumably, Suleiman is the new chief executive and CinC of the armed forces. What the morrow will bring no one knows right now. But this is clear: for the time being, at least, Mubarak is out but his government, including his handpicked successor, Suleiman, is still in.

So what has changed? Less than it appears. My crystal ball tells me that the Suleiman government will announce that elections will take place in September as planned, and that until then some reforms will be instituted. But no other change in government will take place until then. The army will let it be known that with Mubarak gone the armed forces will countenance no further civil unrest. I do not mean that the army will move soon or ever to disperse the crowds by force. I mean that it will enforce civil order. The crowds can stay there as long as they like, but limits will be set.

However, I think that after a celebratory time in the square, people will go home and then go back to work. "A man's gotta eat," after all.

Despite what appears to be a triumph for the people today, Egypt is now is a more precarious state than before. That there will be a period of political disorder as factions jockey for position leading to September hardly needs be said. The risk to to the country is very great. If things get too chaotic in months to come, as is quite possible, the factions that can most credibly promise order and regularity of society will become more acceptable.

That means either the military or the Muslim Brotherhood. So I am back where I was last Monday:

Who will wind up on top in Egypt? The faction with most willing and able to kill other Egyptians to get power. Right now the Muslim Brotherhood leads for the former and the military for the latter. But the Brotherhood will also take a longer view of things than the military and so will be more comfortable with biding its time.

I would add that in no more than a week it will dawn on the proles that the eschaton has not arrived. Food will be neither more plentiful nor less expensive. Economically, Egypt is now worse off than it was yesterday since investment capital will no flow in and much foreign capital will likely be withdrawn. There is potential for serious unrest by this date in, say, April. If that happens and is widespread, then comes le deluge.

Update, Feb 12: Barry Rubin sees it this way, too: "How Much in Egypt Has Really Changed? Less Than It Seems"